The China Shock and Internal Migration: Evidence from Bilateral Migration FlowsSubmitted
June 2026.
Abstract
Using Korean administrative data spanning nearly two decades and covering the universe of
bilateral migration flows across local labor markets, we examine how the China trade shock
shapes internal migration. While prior studies rely on net population changes to measure
labor adjustment, we exploit bilateral migration flows that separately capture in- and
out-migration. We find that trade exposure primarily increases out-migration from adversely
affected regions, with limited effects on in-migration, revealing asymmetric spatial
adjustment. Decomposing the shock, export expansion reduces out-migration, whereas import
competition increases it. Migration responses are strongest among prime working-age
individuals and substantially weaker among younger and older cohorts. Single-person
households are more responsive than multi-person households. Overall, bilateral data reveal
substantial migration responses that conventional net population measures fail to detect,
offering new insight into the “missing migration puzzle.”